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Helmut Marko recently pulled the emergency brake. According to the Red Bull advisor, the data from the simulator and wind tunnel increasingly fails to match what the team sees on track. Red Bull is too often missing the setup window. Small temperature changes make the car unpredictable, and Max Verstappen is being forced to rely on instinct rather than information. Together, these signals paint a worrying picture. A team once considered the benchmark for correlation and development speed now feels its foundations beginning to crack. This analysis brings together the recent problems, places them in the broader context of the season and looks ahead to 2026, where flawless correlation will be more important than ever.
The Red Thread in Red Bull’s Setup Problems
A pattern has emerged across the season, one that can no longer be dismissed as coincidence. In Japan, the RB20 lost its balance completely during the early sessions. In Miami, the car was hypersensitive to wind gusts and track evolution. In Austin, Verstappen struggled with a nervous rear end. And in Brazil, traditionally a strong circuit for Red Bull, the car again missed its ideal window.
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All of this is happening in a sport where margins are tiny. A shift of just a few degrees in tyre temperature can decide whether a team is fighting for a win or fighting the car. The RB20 seems unable to consistently translate such nuances into predictable behaviour. Where Red Bull once knew exactly how the car would react, the package now works against them as often as with them. After several qualifying sessions, Verstappen even admitted he “could not feel anything” and that the car refused to respond logically to setup changes.
The trend is clear. Red Bull has lost its predictability. And in a season where McLaren and Ferrari understand their cars perfectly, that becomes a structural disadvantage.
Why the Simulator Is Failing, According to Marko
Marko said the simulator “no longer matches what we see on track.” That is unusually strong language for a team long considered the gold standard in correlation. The simulator and wind tunnel sit at the heart of modern development. If that information falters, a domino effect follows: incorrect setups, ineffective upgrades and flawed strategic assumptions.
The cause is not straightforward. Some engineers point to the RB20’s concept, which is extremely sensitive to small aerodynamic balance shifts. Others argue that Red Bull’s downforce curve is less linear than McLaren’s, making the car react inconsistently in varying conditions. The result is simulator runs that look perfect in theory but prove irrelevant by Friday afternoon at the circuit.
This was manageable in 2023, when the car was dominant. In 2024–2025, with the field much closer, even a small miscalculation is punished immediately.
Verstappen Caught Between Data and Instinct
This season, Verstappen has had to rely on instinct far more than he prefers. He is being forced to make quicker decisions in practice, compensate aggressively during races and manage tyres with heightened sensitivity. His talent masks the problems, but it cannot solve them.
The driver who once perfected execution is now required to improvise. He handles it better than anyone, but the situation is unsustainable for a team embroiled in a championship fight.
When Verstappen admits he does not know which setup will work until the car is physically on track, it is the opposite of what made Red Bull so strong. The team’s advantage used to lie in its precision, repeatability and absolute control of variables. That foundation now feels unstable.
The Impact on the 2026 Car
The biggest concern lies not in the present, but in the future. The 2026 regulations demand perfect correlation between wind tunnel, CFD and simulator. The cars will be more efficient, the aerodynamic freedom will shift and the importance of accurate data will grow dramatically. Any team that does not fully trust its tools risks starting the new era from behind.
Red Bull faces the possibility that its current issues are symptoms of a deeper conceptual mismatch. If the correlation problems stem from the RB20’s aerodynamic philosophy, that could bleed into the design of the 2026 car. Meanwhile, McLaren and Ferrari are working with platforms that behave consistently, allowing them to build with confidence toward the next generation.
The danger for Red Bull is that the RB20 becomes the final iteration of a concept that has reached its limits. That does not mean disaster, but it does demand a fundamental reset.
Is Red Bull on the Brink of an Internal Culture Shift?
The situation forces Red Bull to reconsider how it operates. For years, the team’s strength was understanding what a car needed quicker than anyone else. But now that McLaren sets the pace and Ferrari shows stability, Red Bull may need to do something it has not done in years. Rethink its methodology.
Inside the team, debate is ongoing. Some see the situation as a string of unfortunate weekends. Others fear that the correlation break points to deeper structural issues and requires a fresh approach, perhaps even a revision of the aerodynamic concept.
Marko’s warning is not panic. It is a recognition that Red Bull stands at a crossroads. Either the team quickly restores its old confidence, or it must acknowledge that the rest of the grid has caught up in methodology and predictability.
What seemed unthinkable is now on the table. Red Bull may need to reinvent itself.
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