Weather Forecast for the U.S. Grand Prix: Will Verstappen Face Rain in Austin?

The Formula 1 paddock heads to the United States this weekend for the Grand Prix at the Circuit of the Americas (COTA) in Austin, Texas. Max Verstappen will be hoping to close the gap to Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris in the drivers’ championship, and with a Sprint weekend on the schedule, there are plenty of points up for grabs. But could the weather play a role in the outcome?

A busy weekend ahead

The Austin weekend will be packed with action. Because it’s a Sprint format event, teams and drivers will have only one practice session before jumping straight into qualifying and race sessions. For Verstappen and Red Bull Racing — who have won two of the last three Grands Prix — it’s the perfect opportunity to pile pressure on McLaren. However, changeable weather could add an extra layer of unpredictability.

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Rain on the horizon?

According to Weather.com, there’s a realistic chance of rain during the U.S. Grand Prix weekend. The forecast currently predicts a 44% chance of precipitation on Friday and 39% on Saturday, meaning both the Sprint Shootout and Sprint Race could take place on a damp track. Sunday’s outlook is more favorable, with only a 24% chance of rain expected during the main race — suggesting that conditions should be mostly dry when the lights go out.

If it does rain, it would be the first wet U.S. Grand Prix in a decade. The last time F1 faced rain in Austin was in 2015, when the race began on a soaked circuit. Drivers started on intermediate tires, and Lewis Hamilton went on to win, clinching his third world championship that day.

Verstappen’s renewed optimism

For Verstappen, confidence is building again. Before the summer break, the Dutchman had all but written off his title hopes for 2025, admitting he didn’t expect to win another race. But after his victories in Monza and Baku, the Red Bull driver has rekindled his championship ambitions and now dares to dream of a fifth world title.

Meanwhile, tension is rising within McLaren. After the Singapore Grand Prix, Oscar Piastri appeared frustrated following a close call with teammate Lando Norris. As the intra-team rivalry heats up, any change in weather could prove decisive — potentially giving Verstappen the opening he needs to strike back.