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Former Sky Sports reporter Rachel Brookes has predicted that Max Verstappen will still make the move to Mercedes, triggering a domino effect across the Formula 1 driver market that would see George Russell join McLaren alongside Lando Norris. The scenario, outlined in a video for the Essential F1 YouTube channel, reflects the persistent uncertainty surrounding Verstappen's future at Red Bull Racing despite his contract running through 2028. With exit clauses reportedly embedded in that deal, and Red Bull's current campaign falling short of expectations, the three-time world champion's next move remains one of the paddock's most significant unanswered questions.
Brookes, who recently left her role at Sky Sports, framed Mercedes as the most logical destination for Verstappen if he chooses to activate those performance-related clauses. Her forecast places Verstappen alongside Kimi Antonelli at the Brackley team, with Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc continuing their partnership at Ferrari. The ripple effect would then see Oscar Piastri depart McLaren for Red Bull, where he would partner Isack Hadjar, while Russell takes the vacant seat at Woking to form an all-British pairing with Norris.
The Mercedes question that will not go away
Verstappen's potential departure from Red Bull has been a recurring theme throughout the season, fuelled by the team's struggles to maintain the dominance it enjoyed in 2023. While the Dutchman has repeatedly declined to comment publicly on his future plans, the silence has only sustained speculation. Mercedes, facing the prospect of life after Hamilton and needing a proven race winner to anchor its next phase, has long been positioned as the front-runner for Verstappen's signature. Brookes' prediction simply restates what many in the paddock have privately considered plausible since the start of the year.
The suggestion that Piastri could move to Red Bull is more provocative. The Australian is contracted to McLaren and has become a cornerstone of the team's resurgence, winning his first grand prix in Hungary last season and consistently challenging Norris. Any move would require either a contractual opening or a significant shift in Red Bull's approach to recruitment, particularly given the team's traditional reliance on its junior programme. Hadjar, currently leading the Formula 2 standings, represents that pathway and is widely expected to graduate to the senior team in 2026 or 2027.
Russell's McLaren fit and the midfield shuffle
Russell's hypothetical move to McLaren would represent a significant career shift for the 27-year-old, who has spent his entire F1 tenure with Mercedes or its junior structure. Brookes described the fit as natural, noting the all-British line-up that would result. Whether McLaren would view Russell as an upgrade or a lateral move compared to Piastri is unclear, though his experience and qualifying pace would appeal to any constructor. The scenario assumes that Piastri's departure creates the opening in the first place.
Brookes also ventured predictions for the midfield, including Fernando Alonso returning to Alpine, Carlos Sainz moving to Audi, and Franco Colapinto rejoining Williams after his stint as a stand-in last season. Leonardo Fornaroli, the Trident Formula 2 driver, was tipped to make his debut, though Brookes acknowledged uncertainty over where that seat would materialise. The broader point is that Verstappen's decision, should he make one, would unlock a cascade of moves across multiple teams. For now, the market remains frozen by the same question that has lingered since pre-season: what does Max Verstappen want, and when will he say so?
Azerbaijan Grand Prix
I. Hadjar
A. Antonelli
C. Leclerc
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