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As Lewis Hamilton struggles through his first season in red and internal pressure continues to rise within Ferrari, one question grows louder across the paddock. How secure is his future at Maranello? At the same time, the spotlight is turning toward Oliver Bearman, widely viewed as Hamilton’s logical successor. His guest appearance for Haas, his long-standing place in the Ferrari Driver Academy and the shifting political landscape inside Maranello have made him impossible to ignore. This analysis examines how firm Hamilton’s position truly is, how Ferrari uses its talent pyramid and which scenarios toward 2026 and 2027 are genuinely realistic.
Bearman: Rising Star or Guaranteed Success?
Inside Ferrari, Oliver Bearman is no longer seen as a future possibility but as a concrete candidate. His performance with Haas, where he delivered calm and controlled racecraft with minimal preparation, permanently altered his reputation. Ferrari has followed him for
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years and sees the qualities of the modern complete driver. He is sharp in qualifying, composed in communication and impressively unfazed under pressure.
Yet promotion to Ferrari is never guaranteed. The leap is enormous, both sporting and cultural. Expectations in Maranello are unforgiving, and the comparisons with Leclerc or an established figure like Hamilton could become suffocating. This is why Ferrari assesses Bearman not just on speed, but on mental resilience. The question is not simply whether he is fast enough, but whether he can withstand the intensity of the Ferrari environment.
What makes him special is that Ferrari finally has a junior driver who is viewed from day one as a fully fledged long-term project. At a time when young drivers are promoted faster than ever, Bearman gives Ferrari an opportunity to build a new identity for the future.
Hamilton’s Contract and the Rising Pressure
Lewis Hamilton signed his Ferrari contract believing that 2025 would be a foundation year and 2026 the main target. On paper, that remains the plan. But the dynamic has changed. His inconsistent form this season, combined with criticism from Ferrari’s leadership, makes his position more vulnerable than expected.
Officially, Hamilton’s place is secure. His contract is clear, his global appeal enormous and his commercial impact undeniable. But Ferrari has never behaved like a normal employer. A prolonged dip in form can quickly lead to internal friction, especially when media pressure and tifosi frustration intensify. The growing question around the paddock is whether Ferrari is willing to build around Hamilton for two full seasons or whether the team will look to the future sooner if Bearman continues to develop.
For Hamilton, the situation is complex. He wanted to write a final, iconic chapter of his career. The reality he has encountered is far harsher. The internal pressure, the inconsistent car and the public scrutiny make his position less untouchable than it appears on paper.
Ferrari’s Talent Pyramid
Ferrari’s junior structure has matured significantly in recent years. Haas functions as the ideal intermediary step, a realistic environment where young drivers can grow without the suffocating spotlight of Maranello. Bearman fits this strategy perfectly. The current system prepares juniors technically, tactically and culturally.
Timing remains the crucial factor. Ferrari only promotes a junior when necessity, form and internal politics align. Leclerc’s early promotion in 2019, when the team wanted a fresh identity and Sebastian Vettel was faltering, is the prime example.
A similar moment may be emerging now. Hamilton is inconsistent, leadership publicly doubts the driver line-up and Bearman is showing more depth than many Ferrari Academy graduates before him.
The key question is how Ferrari wants to enter the 2026 regulations. With new engines, a new aerodynamic philosophy and a reshuffled competitive order, a stable, balanced line-up becomes more important than ever.
Three Realistic Scenarios for 2026–2027
Scenario one: Stability.
Hamilton stays, Leclerc stays and Ferrari chooses continuity to enter the new regulations. Bearman continues to develop at Haas and only moves up later. This is logical from a sporting perspective but increasingly uncertain politically.
Scenario two: The most discussed path.
Bearman joins Ferrari as early as 2026. In this case, Hamilton may step back, retire after 2026 or shift into a different programme. This scenario fits the modern F1 trend of teams committing earlier to youth, speed and long-term development.
Scenario three: The wild card.
Ferrari signs an external star if the 2025 car disappoints and pressure on the project rises. In this scenario, Bearman becomes a victim of timing, a pattern that has affected Ferrari juniors before.
How This Decision Shapes Ferrari’s Future
Whichever direction Ferrari chooses will shape the entire foundation of the next project phase. A Leclerc–Hamilton duo offers experience, status and continuity, but carries the risk of internal strain. A line-up with Bearman brings energy, long-term vision and growth potential, but requires patience and trust. An external star provides immediate impact, but could disturb the internal culture once again.
The next few months will be decisive. Hamilton’s form, Bearman’s development and the political atmosphere in Maranello will determine who ultimately earns the coveted Ferrari seat for 2026 or 2027. One thing is already certain. For the first time in years, Ferrari has real options. And that makes the battle for the red seat more intense than ever.
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