“A bit of luck”: does Verstappen’s sprint maths really add up?

Max Verstappen said it with a smile, but he meant it. “We might need a bit of luck to beat McLaren.” Behind that casual remark lies a serious calculation. In a Sprint weekend like Brazil, there are 33 points on the table. One mistake, one Safety Car or a few drops of rain could reshape the title fight overnight. But how much luck does Verstappen really need?

The sprint as an opportunity

Interlagos has always been a circuit of chaos and opportunity. With a short lap, variable weather and frequent neutralisations, it is the kind of weekend that can flip momentum instantly. The Safety Car has appeared in five of the last six races here, making it statistically one of Verstappen’s best chances to close the gap.

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With a perfect weekend — Sprint and Grand Prix victories — he could gain up to 12 points on Lando Norris, provided both McLarens finish outside the podium. It is a long shot, but not impossible.

“Sprint weekends are dangerous,” Verstappen said. “You can gain a lot, but you can also lose everything. Everything happens in 24 hours.”

Where luck really matters

The biggest factor is timing. On a track where rain often falls just before or after a pit window, a single lap can separate triumph from disaster. Verstappen has benefited from that before, like in Japan 2022, but also lost out, such as at Silverstone 2024.

Red Bull’s strategists estimate that a well-timed Safety Car in Interlagos can save an average of 4.8 seconds during a pit stop. If that moment goes his way, Verstappen could jump a McLaren even without a pure pace advantage. That is the kind of “luck” he refers to — the random but measurable swings that define a weekend.

The structural deficit

Luck, however, will not fix everything. McLaren’s current qualifying margin sits at roughly 0.17 seconds per lap in its favour. On a short circuit like Interlagos, that usually means one full row on the grid. Track position is king, especially in a 24-lap Sprint.

Verstappen understands that. “We have to be near the front on Friday,” he said. “If you are not on the first row, you almost cannot win.”

That is why Red Bull has tuned its car this weekend for cooler temperatures and faster tyre warm-up on the soft compound. If that setup works, Verstappen may not need fortune at all.

The reality of the Sprint

The Sprint format leaves little room for strategy. With no pit stops and minimal tyre wear, the race becomes a test of reaction and precision. A perfect start or a well-timed DRS run can decide everything.

The downside is that one small error — a missed shift, a lock-up, or the wrong tyre pressure — can destroy the weekend’s momentum. That is why Verstappen’s tone was half serious, half pragmatic. Against a near-flawless McLaren operation, even the smallest edge can make the difference.

“You can control a lot,” he said, “but not everything. Luck helps, but preparation helps more.” If he gets both right, he might not need that little bit of luck after all.