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As the dust settles on the Barcelona shakedown, the first tentative conclusions about the 2026 pecking order are being drawn. Former Formula 1 driver Giedo van der Garde has offered his analysis, identifying Mercedes and McLaren as the early trendsetters. However, he warns that the advantage held by any team today could evaporate rapidly as the grid engages in a ruthless game of "copy-paste."
Mercedes and McLaren Set the Bar
Van der Garde believes that after the first week of running, drivers already have a clear picture of their competitiveness. Based on his observations, Mercedes has emerged as the team to beat, with a technical package that looks robust and fast. "I get the feeling that Mercedes is in a very good position right now," he told reporters at a Breitling event.
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He also highlighted McLaren, noting that the Woking-based squad has taken an "interesting path" with a vehicle concept that differs significantly from the rest of the field. This diversity in design is typical of a new regulation cycle, where engineers explore different philosophies before converging on the optimal solution.
The Race to Copy
While Red Bull Racing and Max Verstappen have kept a lower profile, Van der Garde insists this means little at this stage. The real battle will happen in the wind tunnels over the coming months. He predicts a rapid convergence of designs as teams analyze the high-resolution photos taken in Barcelona—particularly those of Adrian Newey’s radical Aston Martin.
"Everyone is looking over each other's shoulders," Van der Garde explained. "Many teams deliberately waited until Newey's car was seen for the first time. Everything they picked up in Barcelona will of course be adopted." He expects that the unique solutions found on the Aston Martin or the Mercedes will soon appear on rival cars, causing the field to "creep closer together" very quickly. In 2026, the fastest team might not be the one with the best original idea, but the one that can reverse-engineer their rivals' secrets the fastest.
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