Red Bull Sees Mercedes as the Big Favourite for the 2026 F1 Title

According to Ben Hodgkinson, one of the technical leaders at Red Bull Powertrains, Mercedes currently appears to be the biggest favourite for the first world title of the 2026 regulation era. The new engine rules will bring radical changes, and Hodgkinson believes Mercedes’ experience, structure and long-term planning give them a significant early advantage.

The new power units will feature a drastically altered hybrid balance, far more electrical deployment and the introduction of 100 percent sustainable fuel. Every manufacturer is working behind the scenes to prepare for the seismic shift, but Hodgkinson says Mercedes started earlier and may already be a step ahead.

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For Red Bull, the 2026 project is also a major undertaking. The team is developing an entirely new engine in-house for the first time in its history. Hodgkinson, who previously worked at Mercedes for nearly two decades, knows better than anyone how demanding such a process can be.

“Mercedes Started Earlier Than Anyone Else”

Speaking to Stay On Track, Hodgkinson was clear in his assessment. “Mercedes has been working on 2026 for a very long time. Even before the rules were finalised, they had people focused on the new hybrid concept. That gives them a clear advantage.”

He explained that Mercedes still has the most stable engine department in the field. “They know how to build a complete power unit structure. They have the tools, the people and the processes already in place. That makes a huge difference when preparing for a new era.”

Red Bull Building From Scratch

Hodgkinson emphasised that Red Bull is still catching up in several areas. “We started from zero. New buildings, new test benches, new software, new staff. Everything had to be built from the ground up. That is an enormous task.”

He added that the learning curve is steep but promising. “We are working very hard and have made big steps. But competing with manufacturers who have done this for years will be a real challenge. You cannot underestimate the advantage of experience.”

Fighting Against Time

All manufacturers face a tight schedule, with the first 2026 prototypes already running on dynos. Hodgkinson admits Red Bull is still pushing to match the development pace. “The

timeline is extremely compressed. Everything must come together at exactly the right moment. That is what makes 2026 so difficult.”

Still, he remains optimistic about the team’s long-term potential. “Once everything is in place, Red Bull will be a very strong engine manufacturer. But for the first season, Mercedes is the team to beat.”

As the countdown to 2026 continues, the battle behind the scenes is just as intense as the one on the track. For now, Hodgkinson’s message is clear: the new engine era may begin with Mercedes in front, but the chase is far from over.