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For Liam Lawson, the 2025 Formula 1 season has been a test of patience as much as performance. The New Zealander, who began the year at Racing Bulls before being replaced by Yuki Tsunoda, is still waiting to discover whether he’ll return to the grid in 2026. With both seats in Red Bull’s junior structure uncertain, the battle between Lawson and Tsunoda could decide who keeps their F1 dream alive. But as Lawson explains, he’s not interested in comparisons, because he believes he never had a fair shot.
A fight for the final Red Bull seat
The Red Bull driver pipeline is more crowded than ever. With Max Verstappen locked in at the senior team and rookies Isack Hadjar and Arvid Lindblad expected to join the grid next season, there’s realistically only one seat left, the second Racing Bulls cockpit.
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That means it’s Tsunoda versus Lawson for survival. And while Tsunoda has the upper hand in experience, Lawson has history on his side: he impressed in 2023 as Daniel Ricciardo’s stand-in, scoring points and earning respect for his calm under pressure.
In that mini-season, Tsunoda won the qualifying battle 10–1, but Lawson performed stronger in races, finishing ahead six times to five. The points were close, 8–6 in Tsunoda’s favor, but enough to show that the Kiwi belonged at this level.
“I never got a proper chance”
Lawson’s frustration is evident. Speaking on the Mike Hosking Breakfast radio show in New Zealand, he reflected on his short 2025 stint and his replacement by Tsunoda after just two races. “It’s not something I think about too much,” he said carefully. “But I only did two Grands Prix, both at circuits I’d never raced before. That’s not enough to prove yourself.”
He also pointed out the lack of testing opportunities. “We didn’t have a proper preseason; we didn’t do much running last year either. Without that preparation, it’s impossible to make a fair comparison. He’s been in the car all season, I wasn’t.”
His comments struck a chord with fans who have long argued that Red Bull’s driver system can be brutally short-term. Lawson has shown flashes of speed but little continuity, a problem that has cut short more than a few promising careers in the program’s history.
The Red Bull shuffle
Lawson’s replacement was part of a larger game of musical chairs inside the Red Bull organization. Team boss Christian Horner briefly promoted Lawson to replace Sergio Pérez at Red Bull Racing earlier this season, before reversing the decision and reinstating Tsunoda after just two Grands Prix.
The move raised eyebrows throughout the paddock. Many saw it as a test of political loyalty as much as performance. Tsunoda’s commercial appeal in Japan remains valuable to Red Bull’s sponsors, while Lawson represents the next generation of pure racing talent.
The situation highlights how complex Red Bull’s driver strategy has become, a blend of performance, marketing, and long-term planning for the post-Verstappen era.
A waiting game for 2026
For now, Lawson is staying focused on preparation and simulator work, hoping that patience pays off. “My job is to be ready,” he said earlier this month. “If the call comes, I’ll take it. That’s all I can control.”
Whether that call ever comes depends on Red Bull’s next moves. If Pérez departs and Verstappen’s long-term contract remains stable, Racing Bulls becomes the only gateway left. And with both Tsunoda and Lawson fighting for it, every lap in these final races could determine their futures.
Lawson may refuse to compare himself, but the paddock is watching closely. In a sport that measures everything, comparisons are unavoidable, and for Liam Lawson, they could make or break his Formula 1 career.
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