Why Steiner would send Verstappen to Mercedes, not McLaren

Günther Steiner has named Mercedes as his preferred destination for Max Verstappen if the four-time world champion were to leave Red Bull Racing, placing the German manufacturer ahead of both McLaren and Ferrari. The former Haas team principal, speaking on the Red Flags podcast, framed his choice around confidence in Mercedes' ability to master the 2027 regulation cycle, despite McLaren's consecutive constructors' titles and recent form advantage.

Verstappen's future has been the subject of sustained speculation following Red Bull's competitive struggles with the RB22, which has failed to match the pace of its rivals. The Dutchman has repeatedly stated he will only remain in Formula 1 if fighting for victories, prompting links to Mercedes, McLaren and Ferrari. While a move away from Milton Keynes now appears increasingly unlikely, the question of where Verstappen would thrive outside Red Bull remains a regular talking point in the paddock.

Steiner's ranking reflects a calculation about technical infrastructure rather than current form. McLaren secured back-to-back constructors' championships and has extracted significant performance from its Mercedes power unit, yet the Italian believes the works team holds a structural edge when the rulebook resets.

Mercedes ranked ahead of reigning champions

Asked to nominate a team for Verstappen if he had free choice, Steiner did not hesitate. "I would choose Mercedes," he said on the Red Flags podcast. Pressed for a second option, he placed McLaren ahead of Ferrari, creating a hierarchy that prioritises the Mercedes-powered teams over Maranello.

The ranking is rooted in Steiner's expectations for the 2027 regulations, which will introduce a new technical framework and reset the competitive order. While McLaren has demonstrated its ability to develop a race-winning car under the current rules, Steiner sees Mercedes as the safer long-term bet when the grid recalibrates.

Development strength under new regulations

Steiner acknowledged that McLaren could outperform Mercedes again, but expressed greater confidence in the Brackley operation's capacity to interpret and exploit the new ruleset. "McLaren can beat Mercedes, of course, but I expect Mercedes to at least reach the same level when it comes to developing the car," he explained. "Maybe they'll do even better. I have a lot of confidence that Mercedes understands the new regulations excellently and will continue to develop the car in the right direction."

His assessment aligns with a broader view in the paddock that Mercedes' resources, technical depth and historical record in adapting to regulatory change give it an advantage over customer teams when the rule book is rewritten. McLaren's recent success has been built on incremental gains and operational excellence, but the 2027 reset will test whether that progress can withstand a fundamental shift in design philosophy.

Verstappen's options beyond Red Bull

Verstappen's contract situation and Red Bull's ongoing restructuring have kept speculation alive, even as the team insists he will remain through 2028. Mercedes, McLaren and Ferrari have all been mentioned as potential landing spots, each offering distinct advantages. Mercedes provides factory team status and a proven championship infrastructure. McLaren offers a stable, upward trajectory and recent title-winning pedigree. Ferrari carries the weight of history and the allure of driving for Maranello.

Steiner's preference for Mercedes suggests he views technical consistency and regulatory expertise as more decisive than recent results. Whether Verstappen shares that view, or whether Red Bull can restore its competitive edge before the question becomes genuine, will shape the next chapter of his career and the balance of power on the grid heading into the sport's next era.

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