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As soon as the conversation turns to the 2026 regulations, one assumption seems to echo through the paddock and beyond: Mercedes will be back on top. The idea is repeated so
often that it is starting to sound like fact rather than speculation. But when you look closely at the new rules, the competitive landscape and recent history, the certainty surrounding Mercedes’ supposed dominance becomes far less convincing.
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Yes, Mercedes are strong. Yes, they have resources, experience and a proven power unit division. But Formula 1 has taught us repeatedly that regulation resets rarely deliver the outcome everyone expects.
Where the Mercedes Narrative Comes From
The belief in Mercedes stems largely from their success in 2014. When the hybrid era began, Mercedes were miles ahead, and they turned that advantage into years of dominance. That memory still shapes how fans and analysts view major regulation changes.
Add to that Mercedes’ continued influence in engine development, and the picture seems logical. New power units, new rules, Mercedes advantage. The problem is that the sport in 2026 will not resemble the one Mercedes conquered a decade earlier.
The field is closer, development is more restricted and the budget cap changes everything.
Power Units Matter, But They Are Not Everything
The 2026 rules place a greater emphasis on electric power and sustainable fuels. Power units will be crucial, but they will not exist in isolation. Integration with the chassis, cooling concepts, weight distribution and energy deployment will define performance.
Mercedes could produce an excellent engine and still struggle if the overall package is compromised. We have already seen that in recent seasons, where strong power has not automatically translated into dominance.
Red Bull, Ferrari and Audi are all approaching the new era with enormous focus and investment. Assuming Mercedes will out-engine everyone ignores how much the competition has learned.
The Budget Cap Changes the Game
In 2014, money could solve problems quickly. That is no longer the case. Under the budget cap, mistakes are punished harder and recovery takes longer.
Mercedes have experienced that reality first-hand. Since 2022, they have not been able to simply outspend their way back to the front. That should serve as a warning against overconfidence.
Every team is now forced to make sharper decisions, and one wrong concept can define an entire regulation cycle.
History Warns Against Certainty
Formula 1 history is filled with confident predictions that collapsed once the cars hit the track. Ferrari were supposed to dominate multiple rule changes. Red Bull were expected to struggle when the hybrid era began. Both narratives proved flawed.
The same could happen again. Mercedes might nail the rules. They might also end up fighting the same development battles as everyone else.
Why This Assumption Is Dangerous
The biggest risk in assuming Mercedes will dominate is that it oversimplifies a complex reality. It turns 2026 into a foregone conclusion before a single lap has been driven.
Formula 1 thrives on uncertainty. The new rules are a genuine reset, not a rerun of 2014. Expecting one clear winner ignores how much the sport has evolved.
Mercedes deserve respect, not blind belief. In 2026, the best car will not belong to the team with the loudest reputation, but to the one that understands the rules best. And right now, nobody can honestly claim to know who that will be.
Azerbaijan Grand Prix
C. Sainz jr
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