Doornbos Predicts Hamilton Will Win a Race This Season as Ferrari Close In

Ferrari left Suzuka with mixed feelings. The car showed genuine top-end pace through the corners, Charles Leclerc pushed hard enough to finish on the podium, and Lewis Hamilton fought competitively for much of the race. But there is still a gap to close, and the way the new regulations work is making it unusually difficult to bridge. 

Fastest Through the Corners, Slowest on the Straights 

Former Formula 1 driver Robert Doornbos offered his assessment on The Pit Talk podcast. "They genuinely have something. Mechanically and aerodynamically that car is planted. Through the corners they were simply the fastest of the whole field." But that very strength is also creating a problem. "You could see them extracting everything there, but that comes at a cost. On the straights they give back that advantage. In this Formula 1, that is lethal, because efficiency and energy management make the difference." 

The dynamic Doornbos is describing is specific to the 2026 power unit architecture. A car that depletes its battery aggressively through the corners will have less electrical deployment available on the following straight. Ferrari are fast where pure mechanical grip and aerodynamic balance matter, but they are paying for it every time the road goes straight. 

Leclerc Is Pushing Too Hard, Hamilton Is Getting Closer

Doornbos saw Leclerc's approach in Japan as both impressive and self-defeating. "He went to the absolute limit in qualifying, braked later and carried more speed into the corners. But in doing so he also drained the battery, and on the straight he lost everything he had built up." The gap between what Leclerc can extract from the car and what the regulations allow him to convert into lap time is the central frustration for Ferrari right now. 

Hamilton's situation reads differently. Sixth place was a disappointing result given where he was running earlier in the race, but Doornbos sees the underlying picture as encouraging. "For Hamilton, P6 is simply disappointing, especially when your teammate is on the podium. But he clearly looks stronger than last year. If this continues, he is going to win a race this season." That is a significant statement. Hamilton has not won since Las Vegas 2024, and 2025 was the first year of his career without a podium. A win at Ferrari would be the story of the season.

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