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Mercedes have started the 2026 Formula 1 season in dominant fashion. Two races, two wins, two pole positions, and a points lead that is already looking meaningful. This weekend at Suzuka they have the chance to do something that will sting Verstappen particularly hard: end his four-year stranglehold on the Japanese Grand Prix.
A Perfect Record So Far
George Russell and Andrea Kimi Antonelli have been in a different league through the opening two rounds in Australia and China. They have taken pole position at every race weekend so far and split the victories between them. In doing so, they have already matched or surpassed several of Mercedes' full-season benchmarks from 2025, when Russell managed just two wins and two poles across the entire year.
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The comparison with the Mercedes dynasty of 2014 to 2020 is being made openly within the team. Those were the years when they won everything, dominated qualifying, and turned Formula 1 into a procession that frustrated the rest of the paddock. Whether 2026 follows the same pattern is still to be determined, but the early signs point in that direction.
What Verstappen Is Up Against
Verstappen has won in Japan four times in a row. In 2022 he took the title there in chaotic wet conditions. Last year he looked beatable going in but produced one of the laps of the season to take pole and then held off the McLarens for the win. His record at Suzuka is extraordinary, and the possibility of him doing it again cannot be entirely dismissed.
But Red Bull are the fourth-fastest team right now, and McLaren as reigning constructors champion are not in a position to mount a serious challenge either. The honest assessment is that another Verstappen win would require the kind of performance gap between driver and machine that even he cannot close every weekend.
A Long Wait for Mercedes at Suzuka
There is also personal motivation on the Mercedes side beyond just championship points. If Russell or Antonelli wins this weekend, it will be the first Mercedes victory at Suzuka since Valtteri Bottas in 2019. That is a seven-year gap at a circuit where they once considered themselves untouchable. They would very much like to change that this Sunday.
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